2022-06-10 Note: The Fracking Boom delayed this forecast for a decade. In 2010 it could not be forseen that capital would invest and lose $350 billion in the Fracking. Many in that effort went bankrupt in 2020, US oil production is down 1.5 million barrels a day, and oil increased 70% in the last year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine indicates this forecast is foresightful.
Joint Forces Command’s Joint Operating Environment 2010 (JOE-2010) warning to all US military commands of the political risks of depending on foreign oil:
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.”
“A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest.”
“Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity.”
“The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields.”
Forward by General James N Mattis
The Five Stages of Decline, identified in the book How the Might Fall, can be applied to the current US dependence on foreign oil:
STAGE 1: HUBRIS BORN OF SUCCESS
- Interpreting as outdated and changable by interpretation the written Constitution’s enumerated nature, Preamble’s Divided Sovereignty, “post Roads” restrictions, “harbors” restriction, Amendments 9 and 10 of the Bill of Rights.
- Federal government taxing and building oil and coal fired infrastructure.
- Ignorning the vetoes of 5 Presidents of “internal improvements.”
STAGE 2: UNDISCIPLINED PURSUIT OF MORE
- Federal officials ignore US Peak Oil in 1970 expanding dependence on foreign oil to 60% of needs by 2008.
STAGE 3: DENIAL OF RISK AND PERIL
- Life requires energy. Oil is finite. Life and nations power by oil are terminal. The 40-100 years normally required to retool infrastructure is ignored as oil resources deplete.
- 1973 Oil Embargo. Federal infrastructure expended dependence on foreign oil from 20 to 65% of needs.
- Oil-wars since 1990.
- National debt increasing with oil imports to $18 trillion.
- Pollution tilting the balance of nature.
STAGE 4: GRASPING FOR SALVATION
- Fracking will save America.
- Drones, NSA and police state can stop oil-funded terrorists.
- Quantitative Easing and debt can fund consumption.
- More highway infrastructure will solve traffic problems.
STAGE 5: CAPITULATION TO IRRELEVANCE OR DEATH